The short answer
Projected growth is the percent change in an occupation's employment across the projection horizon. Projected annual openings is the average number of positions expected to need filling each year, combining growth with replacement of workers who leave the occupation. For job seekers, annual openings is usually the more practical number.
Why the two disagree so often
Percent growth is measured against the occupation's own base. A small occupation adding a few thousand jobs can post a striking growth rate while still producing very few openings in any given year.
Meanwhile a large occupation with flat projected employment can generate tens of thousands of openings a year purely from people retiring, being promoted out, or changing fields. Replacement demand is the quiet majority of openings in most established occupations.
Which number to use for which decision
Use annual openings when the question is how many chances there will be to get in. Use growth when the question is whether the occupation is structurally expanding or slowly being displaced.
- Choosing where to apply now: annual openings.
- Choosing a field to train for: growth plus annual openings together.
- Judging whether an occupation is being automated away: growth, over successive projection vintages.
What projections are not
Projected annual openings is a modeled yearly average over the published projection horizon. It is not a count of jobs open today and should never be presented as one. It also does not react to a recession or a technology shift that arrived after the projection was published.
Occupation pages here label the figure as projected annual openings for exactly that reason, and show the projection horizon reported by the release itself.
Where they sit in the score
Both feed the Long-Term Outlook component, which is the smallest of the three weights. That is deliberate: projections describe the published projection horizon, while a job search happens in months, so near term demand carries more weight in the composite.
Takeaways
- Annual openings counts opportunities, growth describes trajectory.
- Replacement demand, not growth, drives most openings in large occupations.
- Neither number describes vacancies available this month.
Sources behind this guide
- Employment ProjectionsEmployment Projections, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- OEWSOccupational Employment and Wage Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Put it to use
Look up a specific job to see its Job Market Health score, trend, wage context and outlook. Search occupations, or read how the score is built on the methodology page.
Keep reading
- How to tell if a job market is healthyHealthy is not the same as large or well paid. It means employers are actively adding people, separations are not spiking, and the occupation has room to keep hiring.
- How to read occupational wage dataOEWS wages are estimates for people already employed in an occupation during a past reference period. Read the median, respect the percentile spread, and never treat it as an offer.