Do occupations projected to decline employ more workers than occupations projected to grow at least 10 percent?

The 60-second answer

Supported. In BLS's 2025–2035 projections, occupations projected to decline account for about 40.5 million workers in the 2025 base year. Occupations projected to grow at least 10% account for about 18.6 million. The declining group is about 2.17 times as large, or 117% larger. This compares the current size of two groups of occupations; it does not mean 40.5 million jobs are projected to disappear. BLS projections are a ten-year outlook, not a forecast of any single year, and are revised every release.

What the data show

BLS projects 205 detailed occupations to decline between 2025 and 2035 and 61 to grow at least 10%. Those declining occupations employed about 40.46 million workers in the 2025 base year, compared with 18.63 million in the fast-growing group. JobMarketHealth calculates (40.46 / 18.63 − 1) × 100 = 117.2%, so the declining group employs a little more than twice as many workers. This is a comparison of the size of the two occupation groups in the base year. It does not mean 40.46 million jobs will be lost.

What could challenge this conclusion?

• Cross-section, not trend. One release describes structure at a point in time; it is not a change over time.
• Aggregation. Group statistics are employment-weighted across detailed occupations; the robustness statistic uses a different weighting.